Standard Chartered delays $2T stablecoin forecast

TLDR

Standard Chartered now expects global stablecoin market capitalization to hit $2 trillion in 2030 instead of 2028, mainly because supply growth has stalled around $300 billion.

1. The bank still keeps its $2 trillion target but pushes the date back two years as stablecoin supply has hovered near $309 billion over the past 12 months.
2. Despite flat supply, stablecoin usage is surging, with monthly onchain transfer value averaging just under $10 trillion this year and new use cases for USDT, USDC and USDe.
3. The key swing factors are corporate adoption from 2027 and upcoming regulation such as the US GENIUS Act, which could reshape who wins stablecoin market share.

Deep Dive

1. Forecast Change And Drivers

Standard Chartered has delayed its stablecoin market forecast from $2 trillion by 2028 to the same size by 2030, citing stalled supply growth this year. Supply has stayed between $300 billion and $320 billion and sits around $309 billion, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, the banks head of digital assets research, who still views the slowdown as cyclical rather than structural, tied to weaker crypto markets rather than falling demand. Multiple reports on the note confirm the new 2030 timeline and unchanged $2 trillion target for stablecoins and a matching tokenized assets thesis, framing this as a timing adjustment rather than a reversal of the overall outlook.

2. Usage Growth And Market Structure

While supply is flat, transaction activity is climbing sharply. Raw onchain transfer value reached a monthly record of about $19 trillion in May and has averaged just under $10 trillion this year, up from roughly $4 trillion in 2025, with average stablecoin velocity about doubling. Tether USDt (USDT) continues to dominate emerging market dollar savings, whereas USDC leads developed market payments and treasury style transactions and, together with Ethena USDe, is a primary rail for crypto trading and even early machine to machine payments. This mix shows stablecoins shifting from pure trading collateral toward broader roles in savings, payments, and institutional settlement, even before new supply ramps.

3. Regulation, Corporates And What To Watch

Kendrick highlights regulation as the main risk to the forecast, especially the US GENIUS Act and related rules that will tighten issuance, reserves and consumer protections and could favor bank backed or multi issuer coins over todays incumbents. He also expects corporate and bank driven transactional use in developed markets to accelerate around 2027, making distribution networks, reserve yield sharing and compliance architectures central to who captures the next wave of demand. For crypto users, the important signals are which stablecoins get serious corporate integrations, how rules affect USDT and USDC, and whether new bank linked or infrastructure led tokens achieve real liquidity.

Confidence: high because several independent outlets report consistent numbers and quote directly from Standard Chartereds research note.

Conclusion

Standard Chartereds delay to a 2030 timeline does not question whether stablecoins reach multi trillion scale, only how fast. The near term story is flat supply but rising usage, with USDT and USDC anchoring savings and payments and new competitors circling. The medium term story is regulation and corporate adoption, which could either entrench todays leaders or open the door to new, more regulated stablecoin architectures.