TLDR
Standard Chartered still sees a $2 trillion stablecoin market but now expects it around 2030, reflecting stalled supply growth despite surging transaction volumes.
- The bank pushed its $2 trillion target from 2028 to 2030 as stablecoin supply has been flat around $309 billion for a year.
- It identifies four main stablecoin segments, with Tether (USDT) leading emerging-market savings and USDC leading developed-market payments and trading.
- Regulation and how issuers share reserve yield with partners could decide stablecoin winners, with 2027 flagged as a key adoption window.
Deep Dive
1. Forecast Change And Drivers
Standard Chartered kept its $2 trillion stablecoin market estimate but moved the expected date to 2030 after supply stayed in a $300 billion to $320 billion range, near $309 billion, for 12 months. That flat supply, described as cyclical rather than structural, has coincided with weaker crypto markets and past episodes where growth paused before resuming as prices recovered, according to Geoffrey Kendricks report referenced by The Block.
At the same time, usage is rising sharply. The bank says raw onchain stablecoin transfer value hit a record $19 trillion in May, with monthly volume this year averaging just under $10 trillion, up from about $4 trillion in 2025. Average monthly velocity roughly doubled to around 30, meaning existing coins are turning over more often even though the total outstanding has plateaued.
The headline is a timing adjustment, not a collapse in the thesis that stablecoins will become core financial plumbing.
2. Stablecoin Segments And Competition
Standard Chartered splits the market into four broad use cases and sees different leaders in each, as summarized in its note and a Cointelegraph overview:
- Emerging-market savings: Tether USDt (USDT) dominates as a dollar-like savings instrument.
- Developed-market payments: USDC leads in bank-style transactions, cross-bank settlement and treasury operations.
- Crypto trading rails: USDC and Ethena USDe are prominent as base assets for trading.
- AI-to-AI payments: USDC currently leads this niche but fast-growing segment.
Velocity data underlines the split: USDTs turnover is relatively low, consistent with parked savings, while USDCs velocity has climbed to around 80, reflecting payment and trading usage.
For crypto users, the forecast delay does not undermine stablecoins role; it highlights USDCs growing transactional footprint versus USDTs savings-heavy profile.
3. Regulation, Yield And What To Watch
The bank flags regulation and reserve-yield sharing as the main risks and drivers. In the United States, the GENIUS Act and related Treasury proposals coming into force around January 2027 could favor bank-backed or multi-issuer stablecoins and limit who can issue tokens, potentially challenging USDTs dominance in emerging markets. Accounting changes that treat some stablecoins as cash equivalents may make corporate adoption easier, as noted in the CoinsKid community summary.
Kendrick also points to new competitors in developed-market payments, such as infrastructure projects like M^0 and multibank networks that let banks retain more reserve income. How issuers share interest from reserves with exchanges, banks and payment partners could become a decisive competitive lever.
The key signals to watch are regulatory implementation around 2027, whether stablecoin supply breaks out of its current range, and which tokens gain share in business and bank-driven payment flows.
Conclusion
Standard Chartereds delay of its $2 trillion stablecoin forecast is a recognition that market cap growth has paused, not a reversal of its long-term view. Rising transaction volumes, differentiated roles for USDT and USDC, and looming regulatory and yield-sharing shifts suggest the next phase of stablecoin growth will be driven less by speculative demand and more by payments, trading infrastructure and corporate adoption.
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