US CLARITY Act nears final approval

TLDR

US lawmakers are close to finalizing the CLARITY Act, a landmark bill that would create the first full federal rulebook for crypto in the United States.

1. The bill is in late stage negotiations, with reports saying only 2 to 3 disputed issues remain and Senate markup targeted for late April, but no final vote is scheduled yet.
2. CLARITY would split oversight between the SEC and CFTC and lock in strict rules for stablecoin yields, DeFi, and platforms, reshaping business models for issuers, exchanges, and protocols.
3. Odds of passage in 2026 look moderately favorable, but election timing and Senate scheduling remain key risks, so markets are watching committee calendars and stablecoin language closely.

Deep Dive

1. How Close The Bill Really Is

Multiple reports from JPMorgan and others say negotiations on the CLARITY Act have narrowed from about a dozen disputes to just a few, mainly around stablecoin rewards and DeFi oversight, with most other issues resolved in principle JPMorgan report.

The House already passed a version of the bill in 2025, and the Senate Agriculture Committee cleared its own version in early 2026. The SEC hosted a public roundtable on the act as the Senate Banking Committee targets a late April markup, signaling regulators are preparing to implement once Congress acts SEC CLARITY Act roundtable.

However, the final text is not yet public and there is no firm Senate floor vote scheduled, so nears final approval means politically advanced rather than guaranteed to pass tomorrow.

2. What CLARITY Would Change

Substantively, CLARITY is a market structure bill. It would formally divide digital commodities to the CFTC and digital securities to the SEC, ending much of the current case by case jurisdiction fight.

For stablecoins, the emerging compromise would ban passive yield simply for holding a token, but allow activity based rewards tied to payments and platform use, a shift that could cut savings account style returns while preserving incentives for on chain activity. This directly affects stablecoin issuers, exchanges, and DeFi protocols that rely on yield like features.

The bill also sets federal standards for exchanges, brokers, and DeFi in areas like custody, disclosures, and market integrity, which likely increases compliance costs but could unlock more institutional participation once rules are clear.

3. Timeline, Risks, And Market Watchpoints

Prediction markets currently put CLARITYs 2026 passage odds around the mid 50 percent range, reflecting progress but not certainty passage odds near 55 percent. JPMorgan calls the bill a potential positive catalyst but flags political risk from the 2026 midterms and possible shifts in House control.

The immediate milestones to watch are: a scheduled Senate Banking markup, the release of final stablecoin yield language, and any announced Senate floor vote window. Missing the current spring window could push the process into a much less predictable election calendar.

For markets, analysts are watching stablecoin focused chains and DeFi platforms, since a firm federal framework for stablecoins and yield could drive new capital toward compliant issuers and away from loosely regulated competitors.

Conclusion

The CLARITY Act is closer to becoming the United States first comprehensive crypto rulebook than at any prior point, but it is not over the finish line yet. If it passes in something like its current form, crypto in the US would move into a more regulated but more predictable regime, with clearer SEC and CFTC lanes and tighter stablecoin rules. The key task for crypto users and builders is to track how the final text treats yields, DeFi, and platform obligations, since those details will determine who benefits most from the new clarity.