US lawmakers intensify push for CLARITY Act

TLDR

US lawmakers and regulators are ramping up pressure to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a landmark bill to define US crypto rules.

1. The CLARITY Act passed the House in 2025 and now faces an intense push in the Senate, with key officials warning this may be the last real window before 2030.
2. The bill would split oversight between SEC and CFTC, set formal rules for exchanges and stablecoins, and add strong AML and consumer protections, fundamentally reshaping US crypto market structure.
3. Odds of passage remain uncertain, so crypto users should watch Senate Banking Committee action, any stablecoin yield compromise, and how the election calendar affects legislative bandwidth.

Deep Dive

1. Where The Bill Stands Now

The CLARITY Act is a comprehensive market structure bill that passed the House in July 2025 and is now stuck in the Senate Banking Committee, awaiting a markup and floor vote. Senior officials describe it as a major crypto regulation bill that is still awaiting Senate approval after months of delay due mainly to Banking Committee disputes over stablecoin rules.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, CFTC and SEC leaders, and prominent industry figures like David Sacks are publicly urging Congress to pass the Clarity Act and send it to the President, arguing that regulatory uncertainty is pushing activity to hubs such as Abu Dhabi and Singapore. Senator Cynthia Lummis has warned that if Congress misses this window, there may not be another serious shot at passage until around 2030, given midterm elections and shifting priorities.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who opposed an earlier draft, now openly supports the latest version after negotiations, signaling that much of the industry is coalescing around the bill.

2. How The CLARITY Act Would Change Crypto

Substantively, the bill would define when digital assets are treated as securities versus commodities and allocate primary oversight accordingly between the SEC and CFTC, replacing the current patchwork and enforcement led approach. A Senate version also includes a Reg Crypto exemption for token fundraising and a token taxonomy that treats major assets like BTC and ETH as non securities.

It builds on the GENIUS Act stablecoin law by creating a broader framework for stablecoin issuers and intermediaries, plus rules for trading platforms, custody, disclosures, anti fraud, and anti money laundering. A recent White House economic study found that banning stablecoin rewards would have only a tiny impact on bank lending, backing crypto industry arguments that yield does not meaningfully threaten banks.

At the same time, critics warn that one version of the bill could embed the greatest expansion of Patriot Act powers since 2001, increasing financial surveillance even as it clarifies rules for businesses.

3. Odds, Timelines, And What To Watch

Analysts and markets are split on the bills chances. One detailed roundup reports prediction markets putting 2026 signing odds in the mid 60 percent range, while Ripples Brad Garlinghouse has suggested even higher probabilities, though on a slightly delayed timeline. A separate Coindesk interview with Wintermutes Ron Hammond pegs the probability closer to a 30 percent chance of passing this year, citing political friction and procedural risk.

The key unresolved issue is still stablecoin yield. Banks want a hard ban on interest style rewards through exchanges, while crypto firms argue rewards are critical for competitiveness. Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks have floated a compromise that bans passive balance yield but allows activity based rewards, yet large players like Coinbase reportedly only recently accepted updated language.

Practically, the next milestones to watch are:

1. Senate Banking Committee markup timing and draft text around stablecoin rewards.
2. Whether Senate leaders prioritize a floor vote before the calendar is consumed by elections.
3. How far regulators go with standalone moves, such as SEC safe harbor rules, if Congress stalls.

Conclusion

US lawmakers and regulators really are intensifying the push behind the CLARITY Act, and the bill is closer to a comprehensive crypto framework than any prior effort. Whether it actually passes depends on resolving a narrow but consequential fight over stablecoin yields and clearing several tight procedural hurdles before politics crowds out bandwidth, so the coming months in the Senate will be critical for the future shape of US crypto markets.