TLDR
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is publicly pressing Congress to finish the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, signalling the bill is very close to becoming law.
- Bessent describes the CLARITY Act as being at the 1?yard line, after it has already passed the House and cleared key Senate committees.
- The bill would create the first full federal rulebook for U.S. crypto, splitting oversight between the SEC for securities?like tokens and the CFTC for digital commodities such as Bitcoin.
- Odds of passage for 2026 sit around 4050%, with a narrow window before the August recess and remaining political fights over ethics and consumer protections.
Deep Dive
1. Treasury Push and Where the Bill Stands
Bessent has urged Congress to finalize the CLARITY Act, telling reporters the process is at the 1?yard line, meaning only the Senate floor vote and presidential signature remain before enactment, according to reporting from Crypto Briefing.
The House passed the bill in July 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee have both advanced their portions. The main procedural hurdle now is scheduling and winning a 60?vote cloture in the Senate before the early?August recess.
Prediction markets referenced in multiple reports currently assign roughly a low?mid 40% chance that the bill becomes law in 2026, up from around 30% just days earlier as ethics negotiations have moved forward.
2. What CLARITY Would Change For Crypto
The CLARITY Act is a comprehensive market?structure bill. It would:
- Give the CFTC primary authority over digital commodities like Bitcoin, while the SEC keeps jurisdiction over tokens that function like securities, as described in analyses from Finance Yahoo.
- Codify key market?structure rules: registration for brokers and exchanges, custody standards, anti?fraud requirements, and clearer treatment of customer crypto as customer property in certain bankruptcies, addressing gaps exposed by cases such as Celsius.
- Lock in specific asset classifications, such as XRPs commodity status, which matters for large institutions that need durable statutory clarity rather than reversible regulator guidance.
If passed, U.S. crypto would shift from a patchwork of enforcement actions toward a defined federal framework, likely making it easier for banks, ETFs, and pensions to scale exposure.
3. Politics, Ethics Fights, and What to Watch
The headline about Treasury urging passage comes after the White House agreed to an ethics package limiting the president, vice president, lawmakers, and senior officials from profiting from crypto while in office, removing a major obstacle for Senate Democrats, per coverage from TradingView / BeInCrypto.
Republicans hold 53 seats, so at least seven Democratic votes are still needed. Some Democrats argue the bill weakens consumer protections, and law?enforcement and banking groups continue to scrutinize DeFi and stablecoin yield provisions. The practical deadline is the August recess; missing it could push the debate into 2027 and materially lower passage odds.
For crypto users and builders, the next few weeks are a key regime?shift window; a Senate vote scheduled and ethics text released publicly are the main signals to watch.
Conclusion
Treasurys public pressure is a strong signal that the administration wants CLARITY enacted this year, and that negotiations have moved past the most contentious ethics issues.
If Congress clears the remaining hurdles, U.S. crypto will gain a long?awaited federal framework that could unlock deeper institutional participation and more predictable rules. If the bill stalls, the U.S. is likely to remain in a fragmented, enforcement?driven regime while other jurisdictions continue to build clearer crypto rulebooks.
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