Lummis sees 90% odds for Clarity Act

TLDR

A leading crypto executive now says there is roughly a 90% chance the U.S. Clarity Act passes within weeks, reflecting sharply rising ethereum/">optimism around a major crypto market-structure bill.

1. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse put Clarity Act odds near 90%, while key senators say only a few issues remain before an April committee vote.
2. The Act would codify that most major tokens are commodities, expand CFTC oversight, and set rules for exchanges and stablecoins, building on a new SEC classification framework.
3. Real risks remain around stablecoin yields, ethics rules, and Senate timing, and prediction markets still price materially lower odds than 90%.

Deep Dive

1. Where The 90% Odds Come From

In a Fox Business interview summarized by Seeking Alpha, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said there is a 90% chance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is passed by the end of April, treating it as a near-term base case for the market structure bill that passed the House in 2025 and is now stuck in the Senate Banking Committee.

On the Hill, Senator Cynthia Lummis has called recent negotiations very productive and positive and staffers say they are 99% of the way there on stablecoin yield language in the bill, which is currently branded as the CLARITY Act in Congress. Republican senators and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt have been meeting to resolve remaining issues around stablecoin rewards and banking concerns.

Other lawmakers are more cautious: Senator Bernie Moreno has warned that if the bill does not pass by May, digital asset legislation could stall for the foreseeable future, while a Polymarket prediction market cited in a CoinsKid community report prices only about a 62% chance of the Act becoming law in 2026, well below Garlinghouses 90%.

2. Why The Clarity Act Matters For Crypto

Substantively, the Clarity Act is the core U.S. crypto market structure bill. It would formalize that most digital assets are not securities and expand Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight, while leaving tokenized traditional securities under the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC has already issued a new interpretive framework stating that most crypto assets are not themselves securities, describing it as a bridge while Congress works on the Clarity Act.

The bill is also expected to settle big questions around stablecoins and exchange obligations. Drafts contemplate limits on paying interest-like yield directly from stablecoin reserves, while allowing rewards-style programs structured more like credit-card points, and giving clearer rules for tokenized deposits issued by banks. For exchanges and token issuers, this kind of federal framework could reduce delisting risk, clarify listing standards, and make it easier for institutions to hold assets like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP under a known regime, even as some tokens face new registration or reporting burdens.

3. Key Risks And What To Watch Next

Negotiators still have unresolved issues:

1. How stablecoin yield is treated, and how to avoid large deposit flight from banks.
2. Ethics provisions limiting senior officials personal crypto exposure and filling open CFTC seats.
3. DeFi policy and liability boundaries that some Democrats want tightened.

Lummis and colleagues are targeting a Senate Banking markup by late April, but committee calendars are tight, and some senators argue that missing a May window could push action to August or later, or kill momentum entirely. There is also talk of tying the crypto bill to a separate housing and community bank package, which adds another source of political friction.

For crypto users, the most important near-term signals are: whether Banking actually schedules the markup, what final language on stablecoin rewards looks like, and whether the White House publicly endorses the package.

Conclusion

The 90% odds figure reflects strong optimism from a major industry player on top of real progress in Senate negotiations, but public market odds and unresolved political tradeoffs imply meaningfully more uncertainty. For crypto, passage of the Clarity Act would mark a regime shift toward clearer commodity-style regulation for most tokens and could support deeper institutional participation, while failure or delay would prolong todays fragmented, enforcement-heavy environment.