Goldman pushes back Fed cuts to 2026

TLDR

Goldman Sachs now expects the Feds first rate cut only in September 2026, extending the higher-rate backdrop that shapes liquidity for crypto and other risk assets.

1. Goldman delayed its first Fed cut forecast from June to September 2026, citing oil-driven inflation and geopolitical risks, and raised its 2026 inflation projections.
2. Higher-for-longer rates typically cap liquidity and risk appetite, and the total crypto market cap is modestly lower over 24 hours while equities also soften.
3. Key variables that could move this timeline forward or backward are oil prices, US inflation data, labor-market weakness, and Fed communication in coming months.

Deep Dive

1. What Goldman Actually Changed

Goldman Sachs now projects the first 25 basis point Fed cut in September 2026, with a second cut in December, instead of beginning in June 2026, according to a recent Goldman note.

The bank lifted its 2026 headline PCE inflation forecast to 2.9% (up 0.8 percentage points) and core PCE to 2.4%, trimming expected US GDP growth to 2.2%.

Higher oil prices are central to this shift. Goldman assumes Brent around 98 dollars per barrel in March and April, about 40% above the 2025 average, with a 10% oil rise adding roughly 0.2 percentage points to headline inflation.

2. Why Crypto Cares About Later Cuts

Higher policy rates for longer mean tighter dollar liquidity, higher funding costs and more competition from yield-bearing cash and bonds, which generally weigh on speculative assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Over the last 24 hours, total crypto market cap is down about 0.76%, while major equity benchmarks such as SPY and QQQ are also lower, reflecting a broad risk-off tilt.

Crypto has already been trading in a macro-driven range, with several outlets noting that oil shocks and delayed cuts are contributing to volatility and selling into rallies for BTC and large caps.

3. What Could Change This Outlook

Goldman explicitly notes that if the US labor market weakens faster than expected, the Fed could still cut earlier despite higher oil and inflation risk, as also echoed in crypto-focused coverage.

Conversely, if oil stays elevated or escalates further on Middle East disruptions, inflation could overshoot and push even the September 2026 cut further out.

For crypto users, the main things to watch are monthly US inflation prints (CPI and PCE), oil price trends, jobs data, and the tone of upcoming Fed meetings.

Conclusion

Goldmans pushback of Fed cuts to late 2026 reinforces a higher-for-longer rates regime that tends to pressure liquidity and risk appetite, including for crypto.

If energy prices ease and labor data deteriorates, the cut timeline could pull forward, improving the backdrop for digital assets; persistent oil and inflation shocks would support the opposite, keeping macro headwinds in place.