TLDR
XRP holders collectively sit on roughly fifty billion dollars of unrealized losses as the coin trades well below its 2025 peak.
- On chain data shows about 36.8 billion XRP, roughly 60 percent of circulating supply, is at a loss, equal to over 50 billion dollars in unrealized losses.
- This reflects a deep drawdown from the three dollar plus peak, with many late buyers underwater, weaker retail selling and larger holders quietly accumulating.
- Key things to watch are the one dollar forty resistance, the one dollar thirty support area, ETF and product flows, and whether on chain activity stays strong or rolls over.
Deep Dive
1. Scale Of Losses
On chain analytics firm Glassnode estimates that around 36.8 billion XRP is currently held at a loss, which is more than 60 percent of circulating supply and about 50.8 billion dollars in unrealized losses.
This comes after XRP (XRP) ran to a multi year high near 3.65 to 3.66 dollars in July 2025 and then fell back to around 1.35 to 1.36 dollars, a drawdown of roughly 60 percent from the peak. XRPs current market cap is about 83.37 billion dollars at a price near 1.36 dollars.
Unrealized loss means these are paper losses based on current price versus the price where coins last moved. Holders only lock them in if they sell.
A very large share of the supply is price sensitive near current levels, because many holders would like to exit close to their original cost.
2. Holder Pain And Flows
Analysts report that the average XRP holder cost basis is around 1.44 dollars, so spot trading below that level implies long term holders are under pressure and most supply is in the red. Glassnode metrics such as NUPL and SOPR are negative, confirming aggregate losses across the network, while over 60 percent of supply is underwater.
At the same time, there are signs of retail capitulation and larger wallet accumulation. Studies of exchange flows show billions of XRP leaving exchanges and larger wallets increasing their share of supply, consistent with retail selling at a loss while whales buy. Investment products tied to XRP have seen net outflows in recent weeks, adding to headwinds.
The pain is mostly on late buyers and smaller holders, while bigger players are more willing to absorb supply, a pattern that sometimes forms near medium term bottoms but does not guarantee one.
3. Key Levels And Signals
Technically, analysts highlight 1.40 dollars as an important resistance level and 1.30 to 1.27 dollars as key support, with a deeper support zone near 1.13 dollars if the lower band breaks, according to recent market structure analysis.
Beyond price levels, useful signals include:
- Flows into or out of XRP spot products and ETFs. Persistent outflows confirm risk off sentiment, while a turn back to inflows would be an early sign of renewed demand.
- Derivatives open interest and funding. Rising open interest with balanced funding suggests healthier speculative interest, while shrinking open interest and negative funding reflect defensive positioning.
- XRP Ledger activity and fee burn. Recent coverage notes a pickup in transactions and burn, which can indicate real network usage even while price consolidates.
If price can reclaim and hold above 1.40 dollars with improving flows and on chain activity, it would reduce the odds that current losses turn into full capitulation. A clean break below 1.30 with accelerating outflows would point the other way.
Conclusion
XRPs roughly fifty billion dollars of unrealized losses quantify how severe the drawdown has been, especially for holders who bought near the 2025 highs. The same data shows a market where retail is stressed, investment product flows are negative, but larger holders are willing to accumulate and network activity is not collapsing. How price behaves around the 1.30 to 1.40 dollar band, together with capital flows and usage metrics, will likely determine whether this becomes a prolonged grind or the base for a stronger recovery.
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