CFTC moves to onshore crypto perpetual futures

TLDR

The US CFTC is moving to let true crypto perpetual futures trade on regulated US venues within the next month or so.

1. CFTC Chair Michael Selig outlined plans under Project Crypto to approve US-listed perpetual futures and related rules on collateral and prediction markets.
2. Onshoring perps could shift part of the 90 percent plus global derivatives volume now offshore into regulated US venues, changing where crypto leverage and price discovery concentrate.
3. The key variables are leverage limits, eligible collateral and which exchanges get approvals, while Europe simultaneously tightens rules by treating perps like highly restricted CFDs.

Deep Dive

1. What The CFTC Is Doing

CFTC Chair Michael Selig told a Milken Institute panel that the agency is working to get true perpetual futures for crypto listed in the United States within the next month or so and will issue guidance on how these contracts are handled in US law, including their relationship to prediction markets and event contracts like Kalshi and Polymarket.

As described in a broader outline of Project Crypto, the CFTC plans to clear regulatory obstacles for US-listed crypto perps, expand what counts as acceptable collateral, and formalize conditions for listing and trading new derivatives products, including tokenized collateral frameworks.

Selig has been explicit that previous US policies pushed firms and liquidity offshore, and casts this move as an attempt to repatriate that activity to transparent, supervised venues in the US.

2. Why Perps Onshore Matter

Perpetual futures are non-expiring, leveraged swaps that reference an underlying price and use periodic funding payments to stay anchored; they now account for over 90 percent of global crypto derivatives volume and roughly US$90 trillion of annual trading on the largest exchanges.

Because US users have largely been shut out of these products, most volume sits on offshore centralized venues and, increasingly, on onchain platforms like Hyperliquid, which became a focal point for 24/7 price discovery during recent geopolitical shocks.

Analysts note that US regulated Bitcoin perps are currently a tiny slice of the market, with US open interest and daily volume representing barely a few percent of global totals; a credible CFTC framework could lift those shares considerably and tie derivatives flows more tightly to spot markets and US-listed ETFs.

3. What To Watch Next

First, watch the actual rule text and no-action letters: leverage caps, margin models, and what collateral is allowed (cash, Treasuries, tokenized assets) will determine how competitive US perps are versus high-leverage offshore contracts.

Second, see which venues get there first: larger US-facing platforms like CME, Coinbase and Kraken are best positioned to list CFTC-supervised perps and plug them into broker and prime brokerage rails, potentially drawing institutional flow away from offshore venues and some DeFi perps.

Third, monitor the regulatory divergence: while the US moves to normalize perps, the European Securities and Markets Authority is leaning toward treating them as contracts for difference, implying strict retail protections and very low leverage limits, which could push European speculative flow toward US and offshore markets instead.

Conclusion

The CFTCs push to onshore crypto perpetual futures is less about inventing a new product and more about pulling the core engine of crypto leverage into the US regulatory perimeter. If the final framework balances investor protection with competitive leverage and collateral terms, a meaningful share of global perp volume could migrate onshore, deepening regulated liquidity and strengthening the link between derivatives, spot markets and ETFs. If rules are too restrictive, offshore centralized and onchain venues are likely to remain the primary home for aggressive leverage, with US perps functioning as a more conservative, institutional tier of the market.