Ripple CEO predicts US crypto bill passage

TLDR

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says there is a 90% chance a key US crypto market structure bill will pass by April, which could fundamentally change regulatory clarity in the United States.

1. Garlinghouse is talking about the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which already passed the House and he now puts at 90% odds of becoming law by April 2026.
2. The bill would split oversight between the SEC and CFTC, address stablecoins, and could formally codify the status of assets like XRP, opening the door to larger institutional participation.
3. The main obstacle is a dispute over stablecoin yield, with a White House March 1 deadline and prediction markets showing high but lower odds than Garlinghouse, so timing and details remain uncertain.

Deep Dive

1. Garlinghouses 90 Percent Call

Brad Garlinghouse has said in a recent Fox Business interview that there is a 90% chance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (often called the CLARITY Act, H.R. 3633) will pass by the end of April 2026, citing a "logjam" finally breaking in Washington and a March 1 White House negotiation deadline for final terms, especially around stablecoins. Reports summarizing his remarks note that the bill already passed the House in 2025 with a large bipartisan majority of 294 to 134 but has been stuck in the Senate over jurisdiction and stablecoin issues for months. Coverage from outlets such as Investing.com and CoinMarketCaps community articles highlight that Garlinghouse recently raised his estimate from 80% to 90% as talks among lawmakers, crypto firms, and banks intensified and the administration began pushing for a spring deal.

2. What The Clarity Act Would Change

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is a market structure bill designed to answer the core question of which digital assets fall under securities regulation and which are treated more like commodities, effectively dividing responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC. Analyses explain that it would also include a "secondary market" concept so that tokens that start life as securities could later be treated differently once sufficiently decentralized, which is particularly relevant for assets like XRP that have had court rulings but still lack statutory clarity. Commentators note that a clear framework is seen as the "final box to check" for many institutional players, potentially reducing enforcement-driven uncertainty and making it easier for banks, asset managers, and corporates to hold or offer spot crypto products in size.

3. Timeline, Risks, And Market Signals

The bullish case rests on three visible signals: the previous House passage, the White Houses March 1 target to resolve stablecoin provisions, and reports of closer SECCFTC coordination under initiatives like "Project Crypto." However, the main sticking point remains whether platforms can pay yield on reserve-backed stablecoins, with banks wary of deposit flight and crypto firms warning that strict bans could push activity offshore. Importantly, decentralized prediction markets reportedly price passage of market structure legislation at roughly the high 70s percent by year end, not specifically by April, suggesting Garlinghouses April timeline is more optimistic than consensus.

Conclusion

Garlinghouses prediction reflects genuine momentum around the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, but the bill is still in negotiation and not guaranteed on his aggressive April timeline. If lawmakers bridge the stablecoin yield gap and the Senate advances the bill, the result could be the clearest US-wide crypto framework so far, potentially accelerating institutional adoption and reducing regulatory overhang for major assets, including XRP.