TLDR
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse is saying the U.S. CLARITY Act now has about a 90% chance of passing in the coming months, signaling rising confidence in comprehensive U.S. crypto rules.
- Garlinghouse reportedly put CLARITYs passage odds near 90% by around April, echoing growing ethereum/">optimism from other industry leaders and prediction markets.
- The CLARITY Act would shift most U.S. crypto oversight to the CFTC, clarify commodity vs security status, and impose clear registration rules for exchanges and dealers.
- Odds are still probabilistic, with stablecoin reward rules and Senate politics as key sticking points, so Polymarket odds and the spring legislative calendar are worth watching.
Deep Dive
1. What Garlinghouse Is Saying
Reports quote Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse predicting roughly a 90% chance that a U.S. Crypto Clarity Act will be approved by around April, framing it as a near term outcome rather than a distant hope. A TokenPost summary explicitly cites him as seeing a 90% chance of U.S. Crypto Clarity Act passing by April in recent remarks. At the same time, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has told audiences he sees about a 90% chance of the CLARITY Act being signed into law by the end of April, with prediction platform Polymarket contracts on the Act briefly trading near 90% before easing back toward the low 70s in implied odds.
Market participants are increasingly treating passage as the base case, but that 90% figure is still an opinion, not a guaranteed outcome.
2. What The Clarity Act Actually Does
The CLARITY Act is a broad U.S. crypto market structure bill that would give the CFTC primary jurisdiction over most digital assets, draw clearer lines between commodities and securities, and require exchanges and dealers to register and follow consumer protection rules. A February regulatory overview notes that the bill has already passed the House with a wide bipartisan margin and advanced out of a key Senate committee, with Treasury targeting a spring signing timeline as midterm politics push lawmakers to act. For Ripple and XRP, firmer CFTC-style rules could reduce the long running SEC overhang and make U.S. venues more comfortable listing and using XRP in payments and derivatives.
If enacted largely as written, CLARITY would shift XRP and many major tokens into a more predictable, commodity style regime in the U.S., which tends to support long term institutional adoption.
3. Remaining Risks And What To Watch
Despite bullish commentary, several issues remain unresolved. Armstrong highlighted disputes over how to treat stablecoin rewards, and civil liberty critics warn the bill could expand surveillance, mandate extensive registration, and weaken on chain privacy by pushing users toward approved custodians. Procedurally, the Senate must still move the bill through markup and floor votes before any White House signature, leaving room for delay or significant amendments. Two practical indicators to monitor are: 1) Polymarket and similar prediction odds for CLARITY in 2026, and 2) whether Senate leaders schedule and complete markup in time for a spring signing window.
The setup is bullish for regulatory clarity, but setbacks on privacy, stablecoins, or Senate timing could quickly cut those implied 90% odds and reintroduce uncertainty for U.S. facing crypto projects.
Conclusion
Garlinghouses 90% remark reflects a broader shift from gridlock toward likely passage of the CLARITY Act, a bill that would redefine U.S. crypto oversight and give XRP and other majors clearer rules. For crypto users, the key is not the headline probability number, but whether lawmakers can resolve stablecoin and privacy disputes and move the bill through the Senate on a spring timeline.
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