Ripple CEO puts CLARITY Act at 90%

TLDR

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse now puts the odds of the U.S. CLARITY Act passing by the end of April 2026 at about 90%, signaling rising confidence in a major crypto law.

1. The CLARITY Act, already passed by the House in 2025, would define SEC versus CFTC authority over digital assets and is now in intense Senate and White House negotiations.
2. If enacted, it could sharply reduce regulatory uncertainty for crypto markets, support institutional participation, and be especially beneficial for utility tokens and assets like XRP (XRP).
3. Key risks are stalled talks over stablecoin rewards, an ambitious April timeline, and a crowded election year calendar, so the 90% figure reflects ethereum/">optimism, not a guarantee.

Deep Dive

1. What Garlinghouse Actually Said

Multiple reports say Brad Garlinghouse told Fox Business and other outlets he now sees a 90% chance that the CLARITY Act will become law by the end of April 2026, citing renewed momentum in Washington and recent White House meetings involving banks and crypto firms.Ripple CEO predicts 90% odds of passage.

The bill, formally the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633), already passed the House in July 2025 with a strong bipartisan 294 to 134 vote, but has been stuck in the Senate. The White House has reportedly set a March 1 deadline to resolve remaining disputes, mainly around stablecoin reward features.

2. What The CLARITY Act Would Change

The CLARITY Act aims to give the U.S. a unified federal framework for digital assets, including:

1. Clear lanes for which tokens fall under securities law versus Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight.
2. Registration and custody rules for exchanges, brokers and custodians.
3. Codified anti money laundering and know your customer standards.

Supporters argue this would replace regulation by enforcement with predictable rules, lowering compliance risk and making it easier for large institutions to enter spot crypto markets.Coverage of the bills scope highlights potential benefits for utility tokens and payment assets. For XRP, which already won a court ruling that it is not a security, statutory clarity would further solidify its status.

3. Why 90% Is Still Not Certain

Despite Garlinghouses confidence, there are real bottlenecks. A core fight is whether and how platforms can offer yield style rewards on stablecoin balances, with banks warning about deposit flight and crypto firms warning about innovation being pushed offshore.Recent reports describe these talks as tense and unresolved.

Prediction markets have priced the probability of passage lower than 90% and often with a broader 2026 horizon, suggesting his April timeline is more bullish than consensus.One analysis still calls April ambitious. Delay beyond March negotiations or new political priorities in an election year could push the bill back or force significant changes.

Conclusion

Garlinghouses 90% call reflects genuine legislative momentum and unusually direct White House engagement on crypto, but it remains a probabilistic bet, not a done deal. For crypto users, the CLARITY Act is worth watching closely, because its passage could unlock more institutional participation and reduce regulatory overhang, while failure or heavy watering down would keep the U.S. in a gray zone that continues to weigh on valuations and product design.