Standard Chartered slashes BTC and ETH forecasts

TLDR

Standard Chartered has cut its Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) price forecasts, warning of more downside in the coming months while keeping a bullish longer term view.

1. The bank now sees BTC possibly dropping to 50,000 and ETH to 1,400 near term, and has trimmed its end 2026 targets to 100,000 for BTC and 4,000 for ETH.
2. Its downgrade cites ongoing ETF outflows, many spot ETF buyers sitting on large unrealized losses, and a higher for longer interest rate backdrop that could keep crypto inflows weak.
3. Despite the cuts, it still expects recovery later in 2026, so the key things to watch are ETF flows, macro data, and whether BTC and ETH move toward the banks projected downside levels.

Deep Dive

1. What StanChart Changed

In a recent note, Standard Chartereds head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said Bitcoin could fall to about 50,000 and Ethereum to around 1,400 in the coming months, before recovering later in 2026.

He also reduced the banks end 2026 targets, from 150,000 to 100,000 for BTC and from 7,500 to 4,000 for ETH, while keeping long term 2030 targets unchanged, according to an Investing.com summary of the report.

The note stresses that the current selloff has been less extreme than 2022 and has not triggered major platform failures, which the bank takes as a sign that the asset class is maturing even as it warns of more downside first.

2. Why Forecasts Were Cut

Kendrick points to spot crypto ETF data as a key driver. He estimates Bitcoin ETF holdings are down about 25 percent from their October 2025 peak, with nearly 100,000 BTC sold and an average cost near 90,000.

That leaves many ETF holders in sharp unrealized loss territory, and the bank argues they are more likely to sell into weakness than aggressively buy the dip, raising the risk of further price capitulation toward the 50,000 and 1,400 zones.

Macro conditions also weigh on the outlook. Mixed United States economic data and expectations of no Federal Reserve rate cuts before a leadership change around June mean a tighter liquidity backdrop that typically dampens risk appetite for assets like BTC and ETH.

3. Signals To Watch Next

Standard Chartered still projects a recovery later in 2026, so the path of flows and macro is crucial. Three practical signals to monitor are:

1. Net flows into and out of spot BTC and ETH ETFs, especially whether persistent outflows slow or reverse.
2. Shifts in Fed rate cut expectations after major data prints, such as jobs and inflation releases.
3. Price behavior if BTC approaches 50,000 or ETH nears 1,400, which would test the banks capitulation scenario.

Conclusion

Standard Chartereds cut to its BTC and ETH forecasts reflects stress from ETF outflows and a tough macro backdrop, but it still sees multi year upside after a possible deeper pullback.

For crypto users, the message is less about a precise target and more about understanding how positioning, ETF flows, and rates can amplify volatility before the next sustained uptrend.