TLDR
About $23.6 billion of Bitcoin (BTC) options notional is set to expire on Friday 26 Dec (UTC), primarily on Deribit per a market update.
- Total BTC+ETH options expiring are $2728.5 billion, a record event per a media report.
- BTCs max pain sits near $96,000%%CKPROTECTED2%% and the put?call ratio is ~0.38%%CKPROTECTED4%%, indicating more calls than puts per a report.
- A smaller BTC expiry last week was $2.6$2.7 billion, with limited impact per a news note.
Deep Dive
1. Size And Scope
The year?end BTC expiry is large: roughly $23.6 billion in BTC options, with total BTC+ETH expiry at $2728.5 billion. That represents more than half of Deribits open interest per a market update and a separate report.
- BTC portion: $23.6B expiring on 26 Dec (UTC) per the update above.
- Combined BTC+ETH: $2728.5B, the largest in Deribit history per the report above.
Its a major position reset event. Big expiries often pin price into the date, then loosen hedges afterward.
2. Positioning And Strikes
Positioning skews bullish on calls with meaningful downside hedges. Max pain for BTC clusters near $96,000%%CKPROTECTED2%%; calls concentrate at $100,000$116,000%%CKPROTECTED4%%, puts around $85,000%%CKPROTECTED6%%, and the put?call ratio is ~0.38%%CKPROTECTED8%% per a report.
- Max pain near $96,000%%CKPROTECTED2%% and call heavy strikes per the report above.
- Put interest at $85,000%%CKPROTECTED2%% is notable, often acting as downside buffer per the market update.
Into expiry, flows can keep BTC near max pain. A clean break above major call strikes could force hedging and increase spot demand.
3. Likely Market Impact
History suggests volatility spikes around expiry, but price often stays range?bound until it clears. Last weeks smaller BTC expiry ($2.6$2.7B) was relatively contained per a news note.
- Record size can amplify short?term noise per the report.
- After expiry, hedges unwind and trend drivers (spot flows, liquidity) typically reassert per the market update.
Expect tight ranges into 26 Dec (UTC). Watch for post?expiry re?pricing if spot demand or macro flows shift.
Conclusion
Around $23.6 billion BTC options notional expires on 26 Dec (UTC), with total crypto options near $2728.5 billion. Positioning suggests price gravitation toward max pain near $96,000%%CKPROTECTED5%% into settlement, then a potential regime reset once hedges roll off, per the reports above.
CoinsKid.Com