Underwater BTC holders sell at record pace

TLDR

Bitcoin (BTC) holders who bought near recent highs and are still in loss are now selling more coins per day than at any time this year, creating meaningful overhead supply.

1. Glassnode finds 6 to 12 month and 1 to 2 year cohorts, with cost bases around 89,000 and 97,000 dollars, are leading BTC outflows at a 2026 record pace.
2. These underwater sellers cluster at specific price bands, turning breakeven levels into resistance, while long term holders and ETFs still absorb some of that supply.
3. The next move hinges on how price behaves near 89,000 to 97,000 dollars and whether ETF inflows and exchange outflows continue to offset cohort selling.

Confidence: moderate to high because several on chain and market analytics reports align on these patterns.

Deep Dive

1. Who Is Selling And How Fast

On chain analytics from Glassnode show that buyers from roughly 6 to 12 months ago and 1 to 2 years ago now sell more BTC per day than at any other point in 2026 as price nears their breakeven levels. Buyers from one to two years ago have an average cost basis around 97,000 dollars, while the 6 to 12 month cohort sits near 89,000 dollars, leaving both groups underwater at recent prices around 84,000 to 85,000 dollars. Glassnode reports that these 2025 rally buyers are the group moving the most coins this year, while those who bought during the subsequent decline are largely not selling, concentrating supply in the underwater cohorts rather than across the entire holder base.

2. Market Structure And Overhead Supply

Cost basis bands often become resistance, because underwater holders tend to sell when price finally reaches what they paid. Recent analysis shows a large concentration of BTC held between about 84,000 and 86,500 dollars, and an even bigger wall in the high 80,000s to mid 90,000s, where these cohorts break even. At the same time, long term holders overall are selling at only about one fifth of the pace seen at prior peaks, and mid sized wallets plus spot ETFs have been adding BTC, with billions of dollars flowing into ETF products and tens of thousands of BTC leaving exchanges for self custody.

3. Signals To Watch Next

1. Price reaction near 89,000 to 97,000 dollars. Strong rejection there would confirm those cost bases as resistance, while a high volume break through would signal supply absorption.
2. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Sustained net inflows, especially after selloffs, indicate institutions are absorbing coins that underwater cohorts sell.
3. Exchange inflows and outflows plus altcoin volumes. Rising BTC deposits to exchanges with weak ETF demand would point to capitulation, while continued outflows and altcoin volumes four times BTC suggest rotation rather than full risk off.

Conclusion

Underwater BTC holders are indeed selling at a record pace for this year, particularly around their breakeven levels in the high 80,000s to mid 90,000s, and that creates real overhead supply. Whether this becomes a lasting top or just another consolidation depends on how those cost basis bands interact with ETF demand, exchange flows, and broader risk appetite across altcoins in the coming weeks.