TLDR
Several centralized exchanges have moved into prediction markets recently. Coinbase is rolling out event contracts via a partnership with Kalshi, Gemini launched Gemini Predictions across all 50 U.S. states, and Crypto.com announced a prediction?market intelligence platform partnership with ERShares and Signal Markets.
- Coinbase: prediction markets integrated with Kalshi per the companys everything exchange rollout. See the announcement coverage here.
- Gemini: Gemini Predictions live nationwide in the U.S., with fees waived initially. Details here.
- Crypto.com: prediction market intelligence platform partnership announced. See the press coverage here.
Deep Dive
1. Coinbase
Coinbase said prediction markets are beginning rollout, integrating Kalshis CFTC?regulated event markets into its broader everything exchange vision. The product expansion was publicly framed at its year?end conference, alongside stock trading and a deeper multi?asset roadmap, which positions prediction markets as a mainstream feature rather than a niche experiment. See the expansion note here.
Regulatory friction is part of the story. Coinbase has filed federal suits challenging certain states attempts to treat prediction markets as gambling, arguing CFTC jurisdiction should prevail. That legal posture underscores how venue availability could vary state?by?state until the question is settled. Context here.
If you want event?contract exposure on a major U.S. CEX, Coinbases integration with Kalshi should offer a regulated path, though state rules may affect access near term.
2. Gemini
Gemini launched Gemini Predictions across all 50 U.S. states via its app and web, initially waiving trading fees to build liquidity. Contracts span elections, economic data, and market outcomes, and the launch follows regulatory steps that cleared the way for nationwide access, according to the coverage. Details are summarized here.
This puts Gemini firmly in the set of CEXs offering event?based contracts directly to retail and makes prediction markets a core, regulated product on a mainstream crypto venue.
If nationwide U.S. access is essential, Geminis footprint makes it one of the simplest options to test prediction markets alongside standard crypto trading.
3. Crypto.com
Crypto.com announced a partnership to build a prediction?market intelligence platform with ERShares and Signal Markets. While framed as analytics and modeling, it signals the exchanges push into the predictions segment and could lead to integrated products for users if the collaboration expands from intelligence to tradable markets. See the announcement coverage here.
This is not yet a full trading market on the exchange, but it shows intent to serve prediction use cases and provide signals or probabilities that might complement trading decisions.
Expect analytics first, potentially followed by tradable prediction products or deeper integrations if the partnership matures.
Conclusion
Coinbase and Gemini have taken the clearest steps to offer prediction markets inside mainstream CEXs, with Coinbase integrating Kalshi and Gemini launching nationwide. Crypto.coms move is intelligence?focused for now but points to further convergence. For users, the practical takeaway is that event?contract access is rapidly becoming part of the CEX toolkit, though availability may hinge on jurisdiction until regulation is clarified.
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