Galaxy slashes CLARITY Act passage odds

TLDR

Galaxy Research now sees only a 10% chance that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, a sharp cut from earlier, much higher estimates.

1. Galaxy cut its 2026 passage odds from 75% to 10% as unresolved political disputes and a tight Senate calendar block progress.
2. The CLARITY Act would split crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC, so its stall keeps the current patchwork enforcement regime in place.
3. Near term, market-shaping actions are more likely to come from the SEC and CFTC themselves than from Congress, with key meetings and votes in September.

Deep Dive

1. What Galaxy Changed

Galaxy Digitals research team has progressively reduced its CLARITY Act passage odds from 75% in May to 60%, then 30%, and now just 10% as of mid August 2026, citing mounting political obstacles and limited time on the Senate calendar before midterms, according to a detailed note on the bills outlook. Their latest analysis highlights that the cloture motion filed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune will ripen for a procedural vote on September 15, but even clearing cloture would not guarantee final passage, which still needs 60 votes. Prediction market pricing has moved in the same direction, with Polymarket traders recently marking the bills 2026 signing odds near 19%, almost double Galaxys estimate but far below prior peaks, as reported by a separate overview of the bills political trajectory.

2. Why The Odds Collapsed

Several nontechnical disputes have derailed CLARITYs once broad bipartisan coalition. Galaxy points to unresolved ethics rules on senior officials crypto holdings, bank lobbying against allowing yield-bearing stablecoin rewards, and efforts to narrow developer protections under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act as core friction points in the Senates negotiations, all documented in their latest passage-probability breakdown. The timing compounds these issues: the Senate returns on September 14 for only two to three weeks before midterm campaigning, leaving little room to reconcile ethics, anti money laundering, stablecoin, and custody provisions that remain contested. An ethics framework sent to the White House on July 30 has not yet received a public response, reinforcing Galaxys view that politics, rather than policy design, is now the main barrier.

3. Impact On Crypto Regulation And Markets

The CLARITY Act is designed to define when tokens are securities versus commodities and formally allocate responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, building on measures like the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, as summarized in broader coverage of Americas crypto regulatory push. With passage now viewed as unlikely in 2026, Galaxy and other observers expect regulators to lean more heavily on existing authorities instead: the SECs Reg Crypto and Innovation Exemption initiatives for token offerings and secondary trading, and the CFTCs recent emergency actions defending its jurisdiction over prediction markets such as Kalshi, are seen as probable near-term drivers even without new law, according to agency-focused reporting on the same regulatory backdrop. Key signals to watch are the September 15 cloture vote, the SECs scheduling of rulemaking meetings, and CFTC advisory committee sessions on from uncertainty to clarity.

Conclusion

Galaxys sharp downgrade of CLARITY Act passage odds reflects stalled Senate negotiations and a vanishing legislative window, turning what was once a plausible 2026 framework into a long shot. In practice, that shifts the center of gravity back to regulators, with the SEC and CFTC using existing powers to define how tokens, stablecoins, and prediction markets are treated in the United States. For crypto users and builders, the important near-term signals are procedural votes and agency rulemaking, not a sweeping new law this year.