CLARITY Act passage odds drop to 10%

TLDR

Research firm Galaxy Digital now estimates only a 10 percent chance that the US CLARITY Act, a major crypto market structure bill, passes in 2026.

1. Galaxy cut its modeled passage odds from 75 percent to 10 percent as Senate time and political support narrowed.
2. The CLARITY Act would define when tokens are securities or commodities and formalize SEC and CFTC roles, so delay keeps regulatory uncertainty high.
3. Key dates and agency moves to watch are the September 15 Senate cloture vote, the August 19 White House meeting, and independent SEC and CFTC rulemaking.

Deep Dive

1. How Odds Fell To 10 Percent

Galaxy Digitals research team now puts the CLARITY Acts chance of becoming law in 2026 at just 10 percent, down from 75 percent in May and 50 percent in June and late June cuts to 30 percent in July before the latest move to 10 percent are highlighted in a detailed report and commentary on X. Galaxys analysis emphasizes that the Senate returns September 14 with only about two to three working weeks before midterm campaigning.

Passage requires 60 votes on a cloture motion filed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, with Republicans holding 53 seats and at least seven additional senators needed if all GOP members support the bill. Market odds are also weak, with prediction platform Polymarket pricing around a sub 20 percent chance of passage this year according to Cryptoslates summary.

2. What CLARITY Would Do And Why Politics Matter

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would create a federal framework that splits oversight of digital commodities and securities between the CFTC and SEC and clarifies when tokens are treated as each, helping settle core questions about cryptos status in US law. Coverage from Cointelegraph and Bitcoin.com notes the bill cleared Senate Banking Committee and passed the House in 2025 but now faces heavy opposition.

The sticking points are political more than technical. Ethics rules limiting officials crypto holdings, anti money laundering safeguards, and whether firms can pay stablecoin rewards without bank level requirements are unresolved and heavily lobbied by community banks that fear deposit flight. As Galaxys Alex Thorn puts it, CLARITY is now much more about politics than policy.

3. What To Watch Next For Regulation

The immediate trigger is the September 15 Senate cloture vote window, which will determine whether CLARITY even gets full floor consideration this year. At the same time, agencies are preparing to act without Congress. Reports describe planned SEC initiatives like Reg Crypto and an Innovation Exemption for tokenized securities plus CFTC work on prediction markets and an Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on August 20, framed as from uncertainty to clarity in Bitcoin.coms coverage.

On August 19, President Trump is expected to host a White House meeting with leaders from Coinbase, Ripple, major exchanges and market infrastructure firms to discuss the regulatory path as CLARITY hangs in the balance, according to Cryptopotato. If CLARITY fails, expect a heavier reliance on agency guidance and enforcement rather than a comprehensive law.

Conclusion

The drop in CLARITY Act passage odds to 10 percent signals that comprehensive US crypto legislation is unlikely in the near term, keeping the focus on SEC and CFTC rulemaking and enforcement. For crypto users and builders, the practical edge lies in watching Septembers Senate vote, the August regulatory meetings, and how quickly agencies move to fill the gap with workable exemptions and definitions.