CLARITY Act odds fall as agencies act

TLDR

The odds of the US CLARITY Act becoming law this year have dropped sharply, while regulators are moving ahead with their own crypto rules to fill the gap.

1. Galaxy Research now sees only a 10% chance the CLARITY Act passes in 2026, given the short September Senate window and unresolved fights over ethics and stablecoin rewards.
2. In parallel, the SEC, CFTC and OCC are pushing rulemaking, exemptions and bank charters that together form a de facto crypto framework without new legislation.
3. For crypto users and projects, this brings more near term clarity but keeps political risk high, especially around stablecoin yields and which tokens are treated as commodities or securities.

Deep Dive

1. CLARITY Act Status

The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act is the main US bill to define which tokens are securities or commodities and divide oversight between the SEC and CFTC.

Galaxy Research has cut its estimated passage odds to 10%, citing a two to three week Senate window after lawmakers return on 14 Sep, before adjournment around 2 Oct, and persistent disputes over ethics rules for officials and stablecoin yield provisions opposed by banks. This is detailed in a recent Galaxy analysis.

Although the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee and earlier cleared the House, lobbyists and policy analysts now largely expect the current version to stall, forcing any future effort into a new Congress.

2. Agencies Step In

With Congress gridlocked, regulators have begun to fill the vacuum using existing powers. Galaxy notes that the SEC and CFTC are leaning on formal rulemaking, interpretive guidance and targeted exemptions to set standards for issuance, trading and market structure, rather than waiting for the CLARITY Act to pass, as described in a regulatory shift overview.

The SEC has a draft Reg Crypto rule and a separate Innovation Exemption for tokenized securities trading, though an August meeting to vote on Reg Crypto was abruptly canceled even after the proposal entered the federal rulemaking pipeline, per a detailed Reg Crypto report. The SEC and CFTC also issued a joint interpretive release this year that categorizes assets into types and names major coins such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as commodities under CFTC jurisdiction.

The OCC has conditionally approved a national trust bank charter for World Liberty Trust Company, enabling an affiliated stablecoin issuer to bring reserves and issuance in house, according to an OCC charter article. This kind of chartered structure can give incumbents a regulatory edge while broader legislation is stuck.

3. Signals To Watch

Near term, the key legislative event remains the 15 Sep Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act. A fast motion to proceed would be a surprise positive; further delay or a failed cloture would effectively confirm Galaxys low odds view.

On the agency side, the most important signals are whether the SEC actually publishes Reg Crypto and the Innovation Exemption for comment, and how the CFTCs Innovation Advisory Committee uses its Cryptos Regulatory Evolution: From Uncertainty to Clarity sessions to interpret the joint framework, as previewed in a White House and CFTC meeting article.

Confidence: moderate because multiple independent reports line up on the Senate timing and agency plans, but final votes and rule texts are not yet public.

Conclusion

If the CLARITY Act continues to stall, the real action for crypto will be in SEC, CFTC and OCC decisions rather than in Congress. That path can deliver workable rules faster, but with less durability and more political risk, especially around stablecoin yields and token classifications. Watching agency rulemakings and charters may matter more for crypto markets in the coming months than headline bill odds alone.