CLARITY Act odds drop as agencies move

TLDR

The odds of the US Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act passing in 2026 have dropped sharply as regulators push ahead with their own crypto rules.

1. Galaxy Digital now estimates just a 10 percent chance of CLARITY passing in 2026, with a short September Senate window and unresolved disputes over ethics and stablecoin yields.
2. In response, the SEC, CFTC and OCC are rolling out exemptions, guidance and bank charters that partly fill the regulatory gap but lack the durability of a full statute.
3. For crypto users, this means more near term clarity via agency rules, but continued long term uncertainty on the overall framework, making a few upcoming votes and rulemakings critical to watch.

Deep Dive

1. CLARITY Act Odds And Legislative Gridlock

The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act would define when tokens are treated as securities or commodities and formalize SEC versus CFTC oversight, but it missed the Senates August voting window.

Galaxy Digital has cut its passage odds in 2026 down to 10 percent, after a series of downgrades from 75 percent since May, citing a two to three week post?recess window and unresolved fights over ethics rules for officials crypto interests and stablecoin yield provisions opposed by banks. This shift is detailed in Galaxys latest analysis and summarized by Cointelegraphs report on the odds cut.

Prediction markets echo the pessimism: Polymarket traders have priced sub?20 percent odds for 2026 passage, and policy coverage notes that forcing a quick vote without support could kill the bill entirely and reset the process next year.

2. How Agencies Are Moving Without Congress

With Congress stalled, regulators are using existing powers to shape crypto rules. The SEC prepared Reg Crypto, a 400?page proposal with exemption pathways for token offerings, and an Innovation Exemption for secondary trading of tokenized securities, but recently cancelled an August 14 vote on Reg Crypto, leaving the rule pending in draft form. That cancellation and the structure of Reg Crypto are outlined in a detailed regulatory explainer from Crypto.news.

Separately, a joint SEC/CFTC interpretive release has already categorized major tokens such as Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities under CFTC jurisdiction, providing a de facto framework for at least part of the market. The CFTC is also actively defending its authority over prediction markets, including an emergency order that kept Kalshi operating in New York despite state opposition, as covered in Bitcoin.coms reporting on the upcoming White House and CFTC innovation meetings.

The OCC has added another layer by conditionally approving World Liberty Trust Companys national trust bank charter to issue stablecoins, despite political controversy over Donald Trumps stake, highlighting how bank regulators can reshape stablecoin issuance even without new legislation, as CNBCs coverage of the charter approval explains.

3. Impact For Crypto Users And What To Watch

For exchanges, issuers and DeFi projects, agency actions offer practical paths to compliance over the next 12 to 24 months, but they remain vulnerable to reversals by future administrations or court challenges, unlike a clear statute such as CLARITY. Custodians with strong existing licenses, like BitGo, may even benefit from delays, as analysts have noted that each quarter of uncertainty reinforces the value of established regulatory footprints.

Key triggers to watch are the September 15 Senate cloture vote on CLARITY, any rescheduled SEC meeting to consider Reg Crypto and the Innovation Exemption, and follow?up CFTC guidance after its innovation advisory session on digital assets and prediction markets.

Conclusion

CLARITYs falling odds shift the center of gravity for US crypto regulation from Congress to agencies, producing incremental, reversible rules rather than a single durable framework.

Until lawmakers agree on a comprehensive bill, crypto businesses and users will navigate a patchwork of SEC, CFTC and bank?regulator actions, where regulatory edge favors well?capitalized, compliance?heavy players and political timelines matter as much as market ones.