CLARITY Act odds drop to 10%

TLDR

The CLARITY Act now has roughly a 10 percent chance of becoming US law in 2026, sharply reducing expectations for near term US crypto regulatory clarity.

1. Galaxy Digital Research cut its CLARITY Act passage odds from 75 percent in May to 10 percent in August, citing stalled negotiations and political friction.
2. The bill is stuck on ethics rules, stablecoin yield limits, and bank lobbying, even as prediction markets still price a low but nonzero chance of passage.
3. Key dates are the White House crypto meeting on 19 August and a Senate cloture vote around 15 September, which will signal whether the bill has any path forward.

Deep Dive

1. What The 10 Percent Odds Actually Mean

Galaxy Researchs latest note reduced the CLARITY Acts probability of passage in 2026 to 10 percent, after stepping down from 75 percent in May and 30 percent in July, as compromises failed to materialize on core provisions such as ethics and stablecoin rules. This estimate is broadly in line with reporting that Polymarket traders now assign the bill roughly a 19 percent chance of becoming law, down from an 82 percent peak earlier in the year, highlighting how both institutional and retail prediction markets view the path as narrow but not completely closed. The Act, formally the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, would divide crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC and is seen by many industry participants as the flagship effort to replace regulation by enforcement with clearer federal rules.

2. Why The Odds Collapsed

Reports point to several sticking points that have eroded the bills coalition despite earlier bipartisan momentum. First, ethics provisions intended to cap senior officials crypto holdings have not reached a workable compromise with the White House, undermining support among key senators. Second, community and large banks are lobbying hard against stablecoin yield and rewards, arguing that allowing exchanges to pay interest on stablecoins will drain deposits and threaten traditional lending, which pushes senators to tighten or oppose the bills stablecoin language. Third, developer protections and illicit finance safeguards remain contested, with attempts to narrow safe harbors for builders and concerns about anti money laundering enforcement on new token models.

3. What To Watch Next For Crypto

The Senate returns in mid September with a cloture motion on CLARITY expected around 15 September, requiring 60 votes to proceed, which is a high bar given current resistance. Ahead of that, an 19 August White House meeting will bring together President Trump, SEC and CFTC leadership, and executives from firms such as Coinbase, Ripple, Chainlink, Kalshi, and major exchanges, signaling intense but late stage lobbying for some form of regulatory path. If cloture fails or the bill is shelved, the status quo would be continued rulemaking and enforcement by the SEC and CFTC under existing law, which keeps token classification risk elevated for assets like XRP and many altcoins that rely on clearer US definitions.

Conclusion

The drop in CLARITY Act odds to about 10 percent reflects the convergence of ethics disputes, stablecoin politics, and bank lobbying that has stalled an otherwise significant bipartisan effort. Until that logjam breaks, crypto markets will continue to price US regulatory clarity as a low probability upside scenario, with the real action remaining in agency rulemaking, enforcement trends, and non US jurisdictions that are moving faster on clear frameworks.