BTC flashes on-chain end-of-bear signal

TLDR

Bitcoin (BTC) has just triggered an on-chain pattern that historically appears near the end of its bear markets, but it does not yet confirm a new bull cycle.

1. The key signal is a crossover where short-term holder cost basis has dropped below long-term holders cost, a pattern that preceded prior cycle bottoms.
2. Other on-chain metrics also read late-stage bear, suggesting seller exhaustion is building while still leaving room for one more capitulation leg.
3. The next confirmation will come from whether BTC holds key on-chain levels and macro shocks, especially around ETF flows, miner stress, and major data prints like CPI.

Deep Dive

1. The New On-Chain Signal

Analytics firm CryptoQuant highlighted that the average purchase price of short-term holders (coins held less than six months) has now fallen below the adjusted long-term holder cost basis, with a three day confirmation window, a move described as an end of bear market signal.

This crossover implies recent buyers have been accumulating at lower prices through the downturn, while long-term holders average cost moves more slowly, echoing similar patterns seen near late stages of previous Bitcoin bear markets.

2. Late-Stage Bear, Not Confirmed Bottom

Several longer horizon indicators line up with a late bear phase. The Puell Multiple, which tracks miner revenue versus its yearly average, is hovering just above the zone that historically marks miner capitulation and cycle lows, while remaining short of a definitive bottom signal.

Metrics such as supply in loss above 50 percent and record long-term holder supply above three quarters of circulating coins suggest heavy unrealized losses and strong hands accumulating, consistent with bottoming environments. Some models point to a possible low window around mid to high 40,000s USD, but emphasize this as probabilistic rather than fixed.

Risk remains that one more washout could occur as stressed cohorts finally capitulate, especially if macro or ETF flows turn more negative during this window.

3. Signals And Risks To Watch Next

Three clusters are worth monitoring.

1. A later upward crossover where short-term holder cost basis climbs back above long-term holders would historically confirm a new bull phase.
2. A decisive Puell Multiple drop below 0.5 followed by recovery, together with rising long-term holder supply, would strengthen a bottom case.
3. Macro and flow signals, including spot ETF inflows or outflows, CPI and rate expectations, and miner behavior, can either compress this bottom window or prolong volatility.

Conclusion

Bitcoins on-chain structure now looks more like the final stages of a bear market than its beginning, with cost basis crossovers and loss metrics echoing past bottoming phases.

However, history shows these signals open a bottom window rather than pinpoint the low, so the most useful approach is to treat them as context: watch whether key on-chain levels and macro conditions resolve toward stabilization or one more capitulation before a durable trend change.