TLDR
Soft US jobs data and a weaker dollar are boosting Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as markets scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
- June US payrolls badly missed forecasts, pulling down the dollar and lowering perceived Fed hike odds, which favors risk assets like BTC and ETH.
- BTC briefly reclaimed the low 60,000s and ETH pushed above roughly 1,700, helped by short liquidations and a modest improvement in risk sentiment.
- The rally is fragile, with ongoing ETF outflows and heavy whale exchange deposits; the next jobs and inflation prints will matter for whether this lift sticks.
Deep Dive
1. Soft Jobs Data And Fed Expectations
June US nonfarm payrolls came in at about 57,000 jobs versus expectations around 110,000, the weakest print since early 2021 and well below recent months pace, according to labor data summaries on CoinsKid Community.
This miss, plus downward revisions to prior months, pushed markets to price a higher chance of rate cuts and a lower probability of new hikes, while the US Dollar Index fell and Treasury yields eased. Softer jobs with moderating inflation reduce the incentive for the Fed to stay aggressively hawkish, which is typically supportive for risk assets.
In parallel, commentators note that the combination of weak jobs and a softer inflation outlook is beginning to challenge the dollars prior strength and reopen the debate about policy easing later in 2026.
Crypto is reacting less to the jobs number itself and more to the signal that money might become cheaper, which historically supports BTC and ETH.
2. How BTC And ETH Are Reacting
On the back of the jobs surprise, Bitcoin reclaimed the 61,000 to 62,000 area and Ethereum rallied through roughly 1,700 before consolidating, as reported by several market wraps on Yahoo Finance.
Derivatives amplified the move: roughly 450 to 600 million dollars of crypto shorts were liquidated in 24 hours, with both BTC and ETH contributing heavily. That kind of forced buying often accelerates short term moves but does not guarantee trend continuation.
At the market level, total crypto market cap is up about 1 percent over 24 hours, while BTC dominance sits near 58 percent and ETH around 9.7 percent, indicating a broad lift rather than a narrow altcoin spike.
3. Why The Lift Is Still Fragile
Despite price strength, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net outflows in the billions over recent weeks, and Ethereum ETFs have only recently turned slightly positive, signaling institutional caution even as prices rebound.
On chain, analytics cited in recent reports highlight rising exchange deposits from whales in both BTC and ETH, a pattern that has previously preceded sharp downside moves when sentiment turns.
Macro wise, this jobs print and the immediate reaction could be reversed if upcoming data show either renewed inflation pressure or a more severe labor slowdown that triggers broader risk aversion.
The jobs-driven bounce improves the near term setup for BTC and ETH, but sustained gains likely require a clearer path to rate cuts and healthier ETF flows.
Conclusion
Soft US jobs data have given BTC and ETH a macro tailwind by cooling Fed hike expectations and weakening the dollar, triggering a reflex rally aided by derivatives liquidations.
However, persistent ETF outflows and elevated whale deposits mean this lift is more of a relief move than a confirmed trend change, so the next jobs and inflation releases will be key for whether crypto can build on these gains.
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