TLDR
A weaker than expected US jobs report has boosted Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as traders price a less aggressive Federal Reserve.
- June payrolls grew by only 57,000 versus forecasts above 110,000, softening the US dollar and increasing odds of future rate cuts.
- BTC pushed toward 61,000 to 62,000 and ETH around 1,700, with solid 24 hour gains and large short liquidations across crypto.
- The macro tailwind depends on upcoming inflation and jobs data, Fed messaging, and ETF and exchange flows that could quickly amplify or reverse this move.
Deep Dive
1. Jobs Report And Fed Expectations
June US nonfarm payrolls added about 57,000 jobs, far below consensus expectations around 110,000 to 190,000, with prior months revised lower and unemployment near the low 4 percent range. This pattern of slower hiring has been widely described as soft labor data, pushing markets to increase the probability of rate cuts later this year and reducing expectations of further hikes.
A weaker labor market has weighed on the US dollar, with the dollar index slipping after the report, while bond yields edged lower as traders reassessed the path of policy. For crypto, the key channel is not the jobs number itself, but how it shifts Fed rate expectations and dollar strength.
Softer jobs data reduces the perceived need for higher rates, which generally supports risk assets priced in dollars, including BTC and ETH.
2. BTC And ETH Price Reaction
Following the soft jobs print, Bitcoin (BTC) rallied toward the low 60,000s, with spot levels around 61,500 and roughly plus 2 percent over 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) traded near 1,700 with about plus 6 percent on the day. Total crypto market cap rose to about 2.13 trillion USD, up roughly 2.6 percent over 24 hours, indicating a broad move rather than a single coin spike.
Derivatives data show heavy short liquidations in the wake of the report, with hundreds of millions of dollars of short positions forced out as prices jumped, amplifying the upside. At the same time, some sources flag continued net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising BTC and ETH deposits to exchanges, which suggest that not all large holders are in pure risk on mode.
BTC and ETH are benefiting from macro relief and short covering, but mixed ETF and exchange flow signals mean the move is not yet a clean, unanimously bullish regime shift.
3. Key Things To Watch Next
Going forward, macro prints remain critical. The next CPI and PCE inflation releases, along with upcoming payrolls reports, will shape how credible a rate cut narrative really is. If inflation stays sticky while jobs weaken further, the Fed faces a difficult trade off that could create volatility across all risk assets.
For crypto specifically, watch three things: ETF flows into or out of BTC and ETH, large exchange inflows that often precede selling, and any change in Fed guidance at coming meetings. Crypto tends to react to shifts in the cost of capital and dollar liquidity more than to the unemployment rate headline.
If future data confirm a gentle slowdown plus easing inflation, BTC and ETH could retain a macro tailwind, but a sharper downturn or renewed inflation could quickly turn this lift into renewed pressure.
Conclusion
The soft US jobs report has given BTC and ETH a short term boost by nudging markets toward a less hawkish Fed and a weaker dollar, triggering a relief rally and short squeezes. Whether this turns into a sustained trend depends on the next round of inflation and labor data and on institutional flows, so watching policy expectations and capital movements is more important than the jobs headline alone.
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