TLDR
Senate floor time is getting squeezed, and several analysts now see lower odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law in this Congress.
- Galaxys Alex Thorn has cut his 2026 passage odds from 75% to 60% mainly because the Senate calendar is clogged with higher priority fights.
- The CLARITY Act is still the key US market-structure bill for crypto, with big implications for SEC vs CFTC oversight and assets like XRP, ETH, SOL and stablecoins.
- The next signals are whether Senate leaders reserve July floor time; slipping into late 2026 or beyond likely pushes comprehensive US crypto rules out for years.
Deep Dive
1. What Changed In The Odds
Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn reduced his estimate of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 from 75% to 60%, stressing that the main problem is now time, not votes or text quality. He points to a tightening Senate calendar dominated by disputes over an anti?weaponization fund and a failed 4752 vote to renew surveillance authority under Section 702, which is expected to consume floor time before its deadline here.
The bill has real momentum: it passed the Senate Banking Committee 159 on a bipartisan basis and is on the Senate calendar, but it has no locked-in floor slot. Bitwises Ryan Rasmussen separately told Yahoo Finance he sees a very low likelihood of passage this year, citing limited days before recess and midterms plus gaps between Republicans and Democrats on key details.
Support is broad, but crypto is competing with surveillance, budget, and election politics for floor time, which now directly feeds into analysts probability cuts.
2. Why The CLARITY Act Still Matters
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would create a federal market-structure framework that splits oversight between the SEC and CFTC and sets rules for token classification, disclosures, custody, exchanges, and brokers as outlined here.
For specific assets, this is material. XRP backers highlight that the Act could codify its treatment as a commodity and move ongoing oversight to the CFTC, removing the risk of a future SEC about-face according to this analysis. Ethereum, Solana and stablecoins could also benefit from clearer categories and rules, making it easier for big financial institutions to participate.
Even if prices do not react one for one to each headline, the Act is one of the few levers that can reduce long-running US regulatory overhang.
3. What To Watch Next
Procedurally, the bill has already passed the House and cleared the key Senate committee, but it still needs 60 votes in the full Senate and reconciliation between versions. Thorn notes it probably requires at least nine Democratic votes, with some Republicans likely opposed on civil-liberties grounds.
Senator Cynthia Lummis has warned that if market-structure legislation does not pass this Congress, the next real window might not open until around 2030, given election cycles and crowded agendas. Analysts say the odds improve if Senate leadership publicly commits July floor time; failure to do so shifts expectations to a riskier September or beyond.
For crypto users, the key datapoint is not daily polling on passage odds but whether the bill actually gets a scheduled, time-boxed Senate vote before the political window closes.
Conclusion
A crowded Senate schedule has clearly dented, but not destroyed, expectations that the CLARITY Act will pass in this Congress. The bill remains the main vehicle for resolving SEC versus CFTC turf fights and giving large institutions a stable rulebook for crypto. Until leadership reserves concrete floor time, markets should treat regulatory clarity as a delayed but still live catalyst rather than a done deal.
CoinsKid.Com