SEC chair sees Trump signing CLARITY Act

TLDR

SEC Chair Paul Atkins says he is confident Congress will pass the CLARITY Act and that President Donald Trump will sign it into law, but the bill still faces key Senate hurdles.

1. Atkins publicly backed the CLARITY Act and said he expects Trump to sign it, reinforcing the administrations push for permanent crypto market rules.
2. The Act would split oversight between the SEC and CFTC, formally classifying tokens and giving exchanges a clear federal rulebook, which could unlock more institutional participation.
3. The bill still needs 60 Senate votes and faces disputes over stablecoins, AML, and ethics rules, so its passage is likely but not guaranteed.

Deep Dive

1. What Atkins Actually Said

In recent interviews, SEC Chair Paul Atkins said, "I have confidence that Congress will adopt the CLARITY Act and that the President will be able to sign it," calling it the statutory foundation the SEC needs to regulate digital assets onshore. This comes after the bill passed the House in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 159 on 14 May 2026, moving it closer to a full Senate vote. Prediction markets currently price roughly a mid 50s to high 50s percent chance that the Act will be signed in 2026, suggesting investors see it as more likely than not but far from a lock.

2. What The CLARITY Act Would Do

The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) would create a federal framework that permanently classifies crypto assets as digital commodities, investment contract assets, or payment stablecoins. It would give the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over spot trading in digital commodities like Bitcoin and Ethereum, with exchanges, brokers, and custodians required to register and follow CFTC rules, while the SEC retains oversight of securities-like tokens and disclosures. Analyses note that this structure could give statutory clarity to assets such as Solana and Cardano, support approval of more spot ETFs, create safe harbors for non-custodial DeFi developers, and provide a clearer path for tokenized real-world assets under existing market infrastructure.

3. Hurdles, Timing, And Risks

To become law, the CLARITY Act still needs 60 votes in the Senate, reconciliation between Senate Banking and Senate Agriculture versions, and then Trumps signature, with the administration publicly targeting a signing window around mid 2026. Key friction points include anti-money-laundering provisions, rules on officials personal crypto holdings, and banking sector concerns that stablecoin rewards could compete with bank deposits. Senator Cynthia Lummis has warned that if the bill slips past this Congress, the next realistic window may not open until around 2030, while critics argue the underfunded CFTC may struggle to enforce such a sweeping mandate.

Conclusion

Atkinss confidence that Trump will sign the CLARITY Act underscores how far US crypto policy has shifted toward codifying clear, statute-based rules rather than relying on shifting SEC interpretations. If Congress delivers, major coins, exchanges, DeFi builders, and tokenization projects would operate under a more predictable federal regime, likely supporting deeper institutional engagement. If the bill stalls, the industry remains dependent on the current administrations friendly posture and case-by-case enforcement, leaving regulatory risk as a central macro driver for crypto.