India blocks crypto prediction markets as betting

TLDR

India has started blocking access to crypto prediction markets like Polymarket by treating them as illegal online betting platforms.

1. Indias tech ministry ordered ISPs and VPNs to block Polymarket under new online gaming rules, and Kalshi is reportedly next in line for a nationwide block.
2. Regulators classify any real money wagers on event outcomes as online money games, citing gambling harm, capital controls, and stablecoin outflow risks.
3. Crypto users should expect tighter geo restrictions, more KYC and monitoring on prediction markets, and potential copycat actions from other regulators watching India.

Deep Dive

1. What India Has Actually Done

Indias Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) has issued an ISP level blocking order against Polymarket, so users in India now see connection errors when visiting the site. Reports say a similar order targeting Kalshi, a U.S. regulated rival, is being prepared for imminent enforcement.

The crackdown follows an April advisory telling internet and VPN providers to block illegal and blocked prediction market and online betting platforms, explicitly naming Polymarket as a target under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025 and Section 69A of the IT Act. Articles from outlets such as CryptoBriefing and CoinDesk describe this coordinated ISP and VPN approach as effectively cutting off mainstream Indian access to these platforms.

2. Why Authorities Call It Betting, Not Finance

Under Indias new online gaming rules, any platform that lets users deposit real money on uncertain outcomes is treated as prohibited online betting, regardless of whether it is branded as forecasting or research. Crypto based prediction markets like Polymarket, which settle in stablecoins such as USDC and run on blockchains like Polygon, fall squarely into this online money game bucket.

Officials have flagged three main risks: gambling harm for younger users, unmonitored capital flows via stablecoins, and tax evasion through offshore platforms, as noted in detailed coverage on the Indian ban and its rationale. This fits with Indias broader hard line on crypto, including a 30 percent tax on gains and 1 percent tax deducted at source on trades.

3. What Crypto Users Should Watch Next

For Indian users, the immediate impact is loss of normal access and potential legal risk if they try to bypass blocks with VPNs, which MeitY has also warned providers against facilitating. Several local prediction platforms have reportedly shut preemptively, effectively ending regulated event betting in India for now.

Globally, India is a major retail crypto market, so its categorical stance that prediction markets are gambling, not financial products, may encourage other cautious regulators to copy elements of this approach. At the same time, Polymarket and Kalshi face rising scrutiny in the U.S. and other regions, including investigations into insider trading and additional country level blocks, as summarized in recent sector overviews.

Conclusion

Indias move to block prediction markets by labeling them as illegal betting extends its already restrictive crypto posture into a fast growing niche sector. For now this is more about user access and regulatory risk than about immediate token price shocks, but it signals that large jurisdictions may resist treating crypto prediction markets as mainstream financial infrastructure, especially where stablecoins and capital controls are involved.