India blocks crypto prediction markets as gambling

TLDR

India has started blocking crypto prediction markets like Polymarket and is preparing to hit Kalshi, treating them as illegal online gambling.

1. The IT ministry has ordered ISPs and VPNs to block Polymarket under online gaming rules, and Kalshi reportedly faces a similar order next.
2. Authorities classify crypto-based prediction markets as online money games, citing gambling harm, capital outflows, and stablecoin-based betting as key risks.
3. For Indian users this effectively shuts off regulated prediction venues and may push activity offshore, while setting a precedent other regulators could copy.

Deep Dive

1. What India Has Done

Indias Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) has issued an ISP level blocking order against Polymarket, so users in India now see connection errors instead of the site. Reports say MeitY is preparing a similar order against U.S. regulated rival Kalshi after an earlier April 25 advisory that named prediction platforms and warned VPN providers against enabling access to illegal and blocked betting sites. Under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025 and related rules, prediction markets are treated as prohibited online money gaming, so any real money wager on uncertain outcomes is categorized as betting, regardless of whether the platform calls it forecasting or research.

2. Why Prediction Markets Are Treated As Gambling

Regulators explicitly say that platforms letting users stake money on event outcomes are gambling products, even when structured as event contracts. Policy documents tied to the new gaming rules describe offshore prediction markets as high risk because they use crypto payments and stablecoin settlement, which can move capital outside Indias banking system. Officials also highlight financial harm and addiction risk for younger, digitally native users, grouping prediction markets with other online betting services rather than with traditional financial markets.

3. Impact And What To Watch Next

For Indian users, the immediate impact is loss of direct access to major venues for trading event contracts, and potential legal exposure if they try to bypass blocks via VPNs. Several local prediction platforms have reportedly shut down preemptively, so there is little onshore alternative, and activity may migrate to more opaque offshore or fully decentralized venues instead. Globally, Indias stance strengthens a narrative that many regulators see crypto prediction markets as gambling, not investing, adding to similar restrictions in places like Argentina, Romania, Colombia, and some U.S. states. The key things to watch are whether MeitY follows through on blocking Kalshi, whether blocks extend more broadly to VPN tools, and whether other large markets adopt the same gambling framing.

Conclusion

Indias decision to block crypto prediction markets treats event betting as gambling first and financial innovation second, prioritizing consumer protection and capital controls over experimentation. For crypto users, it removes a major product category in a large market and increases the odds that other regulators scrutinize prediction markets through a gambling and AML lens rather than a securities or derivatives lens.