Prediction markets prepare US perpetuals rollout

TLDR

Regulated prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are preparing to offer US-listed perpetual futures, bringing one of cryptos main derivative products onshore under CFTC oversight.

1. Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly planning US perpetual futures, in a market where perps already exceed 70% of centralized crypto volume.
2. Onshore, regulated perps could give US users exchange-style crypto leverage with KYC, margin rules, and tighter risk controls than offshore venues.
3. The big variables are CFTC conditions, leverage limits, and how quickly partners like Robinhood and Coinbase surface these products to retail users.

Deep Dive

1. What The US Perps Plan Involves

According to one report, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are preparing to launch perpetual futures (perps) for US customers, targeting contracts similar to those that dominate offshore crypto derivatives trading, where perps account for over 70% of centralized exchange volume and about $61.7 trillion in 2025 turnover versus $18.6 trillion in spot volume, with leverage often up to 100x. These plans line up with CFTC messaging from early 2024 that it wants to onshore perpetual and other novel derivative products so they can operate in the US under safeguards, rather than only on offshore platforms that US regulators struggle to police.

Kalshi already offers cryptocurrency-linked perpetual futures in the US using dollars as collateral, and is expanding toward more continuous derivatives, positioning itself directly against offshore crypto derivatives venues while keeping event markets as a core product line.

2. Why This Matters For Crypto Users

If US-compliant perps launch at scale, they effectively move the center of gravity for leveraged crypto trading closer to regulated rails. That could mean:

1. Access to BTC or ETH perps through KYCd brokers, possibly inside existing apps such as Robinhood or Coinbase, which already partner with Kalshi and helped trade billions of event contracts in 2025.
2. Margin and liquidation rules set under CFTC oversight, which may reduce some of the flash crash behavior and aggressive auto deleveraging that traders see on lightly regulated offshore venues.

3. Key Unknowns And What To Watch

Several pieces still have to fall into place. The CFTC is working on a regulatory gold standard for prediction markets and related products, but final rules, leverage caps, and eligible underlying assets are not fixed yet. Contract design will matter a lot: which coins are supported first, whether funding rates look like offshore markets, and how collateral works (USD now, possibly stablecoins later).

On the distribution side, watch for formal product launches or waitlists inside major retail platforms, plus any guidance from the CFTC that explicitly references perpetual futures on crypto assets. If regulators lean conservative, the first wave could be lower-leverage, institution-focused perps before broader retail access.

Conclusion

Prediction markets moving into US perpetual futures is a sign that one of cryptos riskiest and most important products is being pulled toward regulated infrastructure rather than pushed into the shadows. The opportunity is easier, legal access to leveraged crypto exposure for US users, balanced against stricter risk controls and slower rollout than offshore venues. The next decisive signals will come from CFTC rulemaking and how aggressively mainstream brokerages choose to surface these perp products to their customers.