Novogratz eyes June signing for CLARITY Act

TLDR

Mike Novogratz expects the US CLARITY Act crypto bill could reach President Trumps desk for signing in June, but the path is still uncertain and politically tight.

1. Novogratz says the CLARITY Act may clear committee in early May and be ready for a June signing, yet his own research head only gives passage about a 50% probability.
2. The CLARITY Act would create a national rulebook for digital assets, shifting many tokens toward commodity-style treatment and clarifying rules for exchanges, stablecoins, and tokenization.
3. The key milestones to watch are a Senate Banking Committee markup by mid May, compromises on stablecoin yields, and whether Congress moves before the legislative calendar closes.

Deep Dive

1. Novogratzs June Timeline

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz told Anthony Scaramucci that the CLARITY Act is likely to be finalized in May, with committee review in the first week of May and a potential signing by Trump in June, calling it wildly important for both parties and global access to US markets. He laid out this timing on a podcast, as reported by outlets like Cointelegraph and crypto.news.

However, the bill has already missed an expected Senate Banking Committee markup, and Galaxys head of research Alex Thorn puts the odds of passage in 2026 at around 50 percent, warning that if markup slips past mid May the chances drop sharply, as noted in Galaxy commentary.

Confidence: moderate because the timeline comes from one optimistic industry voice while their own team highlights significant procedural risk.

2. What The CLARITY Act Would Change

The CLARITY Act is a broad US market structure bill intended to move crypto from regulation by enforcement into a clear statutory framework. It would divide responsibility between the CFTC and SEC, generally steering decentralized or commodity-like tokens toward the CFTC while leaving investment-contract style assets under SEC rules, according to analysis from U.Today.

Alongside the earlier GENIUS Act on stablecoins, CLARITY aims to define reserves, disclosures and supervision for stablecoin issuers, and to standardize rules for exchanges, custodians and token issuers. A Yahoo Finance report notes that, as drafted, CLARITY would permanently classify XRP as a digital commodity and give banks comfort using XRP in payment rails, illustrating how some specific assets could benefit from clearer status under a federal rulebook.

3. Triggers And Risks To Watch

Several signals will determine whether Novogratzs June scenario is realistic:

1. Senate Banking Committee markup: Thorn and pro-CLARITY senators say a markup by mid May is crucial; delay beyond that risks punting reform to the next political cycle, potentially to 2030, as Senator Cynthia Lummis and others have warned in recent commentary.
2. Bank vs stablecoin compromise: the main bottleneck is opposition from banks worried that yield-bearing stablecoins will drain deposits; a March compromise banning passive yields but allowing activity-based rewards is one attempt to bridge this, described in a Yahoo Finance analysis.
3. Political and industry pressure: Trump has publicly signaled he does not want banks to derail crypto legislation, while over 100 firms, including major exchanges, have urged the Senate to move on CLARITY, according to a recent industry letter recap.

Conclusion

Novogratzs June signing view reflects an optimistic path where the Senate Banking Committee acts quickly, banks accept a compromise on stablecoin yields, and Congress prioritizes crypto market structure before the calendar closes. The same sources underline that timing is tight and odds are roughly balanced, so the CLARITY Act remains a binary macro catalyst. For crypto users, the practical step is to track Senate markup news and stablecoin policy signals, as these will indicate whether US regulatory clarity is finally arriving or being pushed into a more distant horizon.